But why no AV question?

There’s a new ComRes phone poll out for tomorrow’s Indy which shows a four points drop for the reds with a two point increase for the yellows and a one point increase for the blues.

That, of course relates to an election that’s not likely to take place for another four years and two months using an electoral system that has yet to be determined with a reduced number of constituencies on new boundaries.

So what about the national election that we know is happening in just over nine weeks time? There doesn’t seem to have been an AV question. Given the cost of staging phone polls it seems crazy that this has been omitted.

Because ComRes phone polling is very different from the firm’s recently introduced online polling I am now planinng to show the two series separately so the proper comparisons can be made.

The Lib Dem and Tory increases are within the margin of error – but Labour’s drop goes beyond that. Are we seeing a fall-back from Labour’s previously high positions or is just a one poll blip? Certainly ComRes is now relatively in line with the other two phone pollsters that past vote weight their samples – ICM and Populus. All have Labour in the 30s with leaders of either 3 or 4 points.

Also coming out tonight is the latest YouGov online phone poll. I’ll update as soon as I get that.

UPDATE: YouGov 36/43/10.

Mike Smithson

Does he still hanker after the leadership?

One of the slightly odd features of this afternoon’s Cameron statement on Libya was that not so long after Ed Miliband gave his response his brother, the former foreign secretary, was called.

The elder brother made a very statesman-like contribution from the unfamiliar position of the back benches and for a moment I thought he was going to upstage Ed. He didn’t and kept his point brief.

But what is going to happen to DavidM? There have been all sort of suggestions since that Saturday afternoon at the end of September when he was just pipped for the leadership by his brother in the final round of voting. This has also been an area where there’ve been betting markets.

The last we heard was that he’d declined shadow chancellor slot thus underlining the fact that Ed Balls was EdM’s third choice for this key role.

I just wonder whether DavidM heart is still on the leadership and he’s biding his time. Whether he’d get it or not, given Labour’s electoral system, is hard to say.

Ladbrokes make DM the 5/1 joint favourite.

Mike Smithson

Should you be getting your money on?

Last September when I first got whiff of the rumours surrounding William Hague I had a punt at odds much less favourable than Ladbrokes current 8/1 that the foreign secretary, William Hague, would be the next cabinet minister to leave.

The former Tory leader survived difficult few days but the my bets still stands although I thinks it’s a loser. The only cabinet to leave since the coalition was formed last May has been David Laws and the government has remained intact.

It seems the interest in Hague, he’s moved in from 12/1, is being driven by what some are seeing as his less than convincing performances in response to the Libya crisis. Maybe – maybe not. But politicians are by their nature hugely resilient and Cameron has shown himself to be loyal to his team.

Hague, it will be recalled, was absolutely central to the coalition negotiations with the Lib Dems after the general election and was the one who communicated to the yellows the final offer that sealed the deal – the binding AV referendum which the blues would support without a turnout threshold with whipped votes in the commons.

If the May 5th referendum goes wrong for the Tories then everything that went on over that crucial weekend last May will be subject to the most intense scrutiny and Cameron will want to have Hague at his side.

My reading of the terms of the betting markets is that it requires someone to leave the cabinet completely – so that wouldn’t cover being switched to another role.

Mike Smithson

RTE

Record seat hauls for FG, Labour, and Sinn Fein as FF collapse

Links:

RTE live blog

RTE map and results

Irish Times

Irish Independent

Many smaller European countries manage to count their votes in four hours or less, but Ireland isn’t one of them. However, the marathon vote count in this historic election is finally drawing to a close, but with 16 Dail seats remaining to be filled, and four constituencies still counting (Laois-Offaly, Wicklow, and recounts in both Galway seats).

Fine Gael are expected to finish in the mid-seventies for seats, Labour on about 36, with FF possibly reaching 20, while Sinn Fein are expected to make 14, with Independents and Others having already reached 17. The Greens meanwhile have paid the price for their involvement in the outgoing government and have lost all of their seats in the Dail.

On the percentage vote shares, FG have secured 36% (up 9), Labour are on 19 (up 9), FF are on 17 (down a massive 24), Sinn Fein are on 10 (up 3), while Independents/Others have scored 13 (up 7). In terms of a fall in a party’s vote share, FF are almost on a par with the Canadian Conservatives in 1993, and well ahead of Japan’s LDP in 2009. It’s a moot point as to whether they can survive as a force in Irish politics, although my guess is that they probably will.

It now seems to be the general expectation that the new administration will consist of Fine Gael and Labour in order to form a stable government (and indeed Paddy Power paid out on this yesterday!), with talks maybe starting tonight. This does give Fianna Fail an opportunity in the sense that they are the largest opposition party – but Sinn Fein are now snapping strongly at their heels.

Finally, special thanks to Richard Nabavi for his two excellent articles on Ireland during the campaign.

Double Carpet

Double Carpet (Paul Maggs) has been a Deputy Editor on PB since 2007 and also runs the Election Game, and can be followed on Twitter under @electiongame