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The 2011 PB Prediction Competition

January 9th, 2011

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What do you think will happen this year?

With the new year just over a week old and with Oldham East on Thursday, it’s time to sharpen your punditry skills and make your predictions for what could be a choppy year in British politics.

Entries close 7pm Friday 14th January

As before the competition is being hosted by the Election Game. If anyone would like to take part, the 2011 season is now underway – the Leaders & Finance game is here and the Oldham East & Saddleworth game is here – it’s free to enter, entries close 12th Jan, and the Game can also be followed here on Twitter (@electiongame).

Please do not make your predictions on this thread, but click through to the competition here.

Part 1 – on Christmas Day 2011 who will be…?

(50 points for each correct answer unless shown otherwise)

1 – UK Prime Minister (100 points)
2 – Deputy Prime Minister
3 – Labour Leader
4 – Scottish First Minister
5 – Leader in race for the Republican nomination, based on average of the three latest polls (100 points)

Part 2 – 2011 “lucky dip”    (Scoring at end of section)

6 – What will be the percentage nationwide “Yes” vote in the AV Referendum, to the nearest whole point? (to be settled on BBC figures)
7 – For how many days during 2011 will Bank Rate as announced by the Bank of England remain at 0.5%?
8 – How many seats (out of 166) will the governing Fianna Fáil party win in the Irish election expected early this year? (to be settled on RTE figures)

(5 – 100 points for correct answers reducing by ten points for each 1% out until zero points are reached; 6 – 100 points for correct answers declining by one point per day out until zero; 7 – 100 points for each correct answer reducing by five points for each seat out until zero)

Part 3 – Seat losses and gains in the May elections

(Scotland & Wales: 50 points for each correct answer reducing by five points for each seat out. Local elections: 75 points for each correct answer reducing by one point for each seat out – both until zero points are reached.)

9 – Net SNP seats won/lost in the Scottish Parliament
10 – Net Plaid Cymru seats won/lost in the Welsh Assembly
11 – Net Conservative seats won/lost in the English local elections
12 – Net Labour seats won/lost in the English local elections
13 – Net Lib Dem seats won/lost in the English local elections

Part 4 – the Opinion Polls – what will PB’s PAPA report as…?

(50 points for accurate answers reducing by ten points for each 1% out until zero points are reached)

14 – Labour’s highest percentage during the year
15 – Labour’s lowest percentage during the year
16 – The Conservatives’ highest percentage during the year
17 – The Conservatives’ lowest percentage during the year
18 – The Lib Dems’ highest percentage during the year
19 – The Lib Dems’ lowest percentage during the year
20 – Labour’s biggest lead over the Conservatives
21 – Labour’s smallest lead over the Conservatives/the Conservatives’ biggest lead over Labour

(In the event that PAPA is discontinued for whatever reason, the Guardian ICM polls will be used)

Good luck – and all the best for 2011!

Double Carpet