Cameron – The years of Big Society?

You cannot just speak with a passion, but without sense or proportion. You need intellectual basis to your arguments in order to win the electorate to them through slogans and ideas wire tapped into that intellectual base.

Without intellectual basis sold to electorate, danger is the Cameron government will ruin its electoral prospects as into ideological void voters instead identify this government as obsessing with price tags, not understanding the value of the merchandise. Starting with an aircraft carrier without planes, more examples build a picture with which historians encapsulate “The Cameron Years.”

Also has too much pain been loaded into the early years of this parliament purely out of the National Interest? To get it wrong, inflict pain on voters and suffer worse economic performance than our competitors and come under attack for wasting money through rushed reform could spell electoral defeat, the same reform achieved together with with electoral success with a more conservative approach to it.

David Cameron: don’t take popularity for granted, there is work to be done connecting Cameron ideology with the electorate, and that may mean pacing reform a bit more cautiously.

Nick Clegg – it might get tricky

What rescues the LibDems is they came into coalition in the “National Interest” to sort out the economic mess left by Labour?

The LibDems need upturn in the economy, but also need to convince those who supported them for ideological reasons there was moderating influence on the ideology of the coalition. To borrow from lucid post by Kieron on Dec21st “the country is splitting into two camps… one accepts the policies of the government as necessary to deal with mess left by Labour – other sees the governments policies as ideological, moving too far and too fast. …in first camp you vote Conservative …in the second vote Labour. Why vote Lib Dem?”

Clearly some LibDem voters not convinced they are actually having a positive influence across government policy – if privately LibDem MPs feel cutting to smaller state inconsistent with social liberalism cornerstone to their own political beliefs and values they are going to need to be good salesman.

Nick Clegg: a tricky year ahead – since early 1980s a social liberal policy platform opposing what David Steel called “apartheid of the pocket” more recently opposition to tuition fees, was focal to your electoral base, danger is you may become identified as unprincipled career politicians who did not do enough to defend social liberalism important to your party.

Ed Milliband under pressure?

In other countries a mayor or governor comes in with CV evidence they’re competent and to be trusted – what can British oppositions do between elections to demonstrate competence and strength of ideas? Only real way of assessing opposition leaders has to be how competitive they are in elections.

Benchmarked against 1980s and earlier, Labour leader today owns his party’s policies. His activists can’t be bothered to shape policy, they leave that to “the experts” – delegates turn up and applaud mouthing “he’s my leader and I support him.” DavidM was right, from EdM’s first hours he was somersaulting over “doorstep difficult” policy positions, most of those who supported the policies of government now smile and clap each u turn.

Despite the branding by the Tory media, I don’t see this crop of Labour leaders ideologically driven (compared to the likes of Benn, Foot, Crosland). In fact, on what EdM and Balls already say on immigration, Europe, cuts, tax, jobs etc they are hungry to be popular on doorsteps and win elections.

Ed Milliband: people giggle at your “squeezed middle” though its clear to me you know what you are doing and have no scruples doing it. The coming years will surely bring you electoral success.

East Brimstone has posted on many occasions during 2010 – this is his first guest slot

Who has got the edge as postal voting begins

If things have been going to plan then thousands of electors in Oldham East and Saddleworth will be receiving their by-election voting packs in this morning’s mail.

We haven’t got a figure yet on the number of postal votes but at the general election it was 8,316 out of 45,092 votes. Given an expected smaller turnout and the efforts that the red and yellows have been making getting supporters signed up my guess is that the postal proportion should be substantially larger.

The experience of other elections is that postal voters don’t hang about – many vote straight away. For them the by-election is over even though the campaign continues for another thirteen days.

The Survation poll that is being carried out is expected to be published early next week and does include a question on postal voting. Hopefully the firm will provide a party split which could provide an interesting pointer.

Tory activists have been contacting me to say that they have been asked to go to Oldham and it’s clear that a late attempt is bring made to get the blues back into the game.

What will be critical is whether the polling shows that the blues are in a better position to beat Labour than their coalition partners, the Lib Dems. The experience of previous by-election battles is that the party perceived to be third place gets squeezed in the final days.

This is turning out to be the most absorbing by-election for several decades. I’ll refrain from making any firm predictions until we get some polling but on the basis of current national polling Labour should win.

Mike Smithson

Who will you nominate for the site’s annual award?

Every year since the site began we have run an election for the “Poster of the Year” when lurkers and commenters can decide who has added most to our discussions over the past twelve months.

The process is in three stages. At this stage we are seeking nominations. Who do you think should we should be including on the list of possibles? Can you use the thread below to make your suggestions with the name of the person at the top of the comment and your reasons.

The one rule is that previous winners, in 2009 it was Richard Nabavi, are not eligible.

My top three would be:-

Rod Crosby for consistently in the years leading to May 6th 2010 arguing here that just about the only possibly outcome was a hung parliament.

Antifrank for his consistent analysis and insights.

Yellow Submarine who throughout the year has brought his perspective to PB during a period when his party has become centre stage.

From those names you suggest a long list will be drawn up for you to vote on. In the first round you will be able to vote for as many of the names on the list as you like. Then there will be voting on the top five on a FPTP basis to choose the winner.

So there is no doubt I make the rules and will intervene at my absolute discretion on any matter.

I am on holiday in Scotland for the New Year and the structure this year has been designed to minimise my input.

Best of luck.

Mike Smithson

Does an ageing electorate add to the challenge for the reds?

One of the stories carried by several papers this morning is the projection by the Department for Work and Pensions that almost a fifth of Britons will live to 100.

This is all based on population trends that point to about half a million people a year celebrating their 100th birthday by 2066, compared with about 10,000 now. But this is not just a long-term development. The figures suggest that more than 2 million currently aged 51 and over can expect to reach the 100 threshold.

This clearly has massive implications for large parts of the public services which can expect demand on them to increase.

But here at PB our focus is on the impact on voting and future elections.

For the older you are the more likely it is that you will vote and the Tories have much greater support from this segment than the rest of the electorate – see the table here

On the face of it this could present Labour with massive future challenges although because of their voting power all parties have to be concerned about the oldies.

Is it any wonder that in the Osborne cuts package in October the so-called pensioner perks – winter fuel allowance, free bus travel, prescriptions and TV licences – were untouched even for the very rich?

Mike Smithson