Archive for November, 2010

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What’ll the latest forecasts do to the political debate?

Monday, November 29th, 2010

There was a time when the autumn statement from the chancellor was a big economic event – almost as big as the budget itself. In Gordon Brown’s day it was called the “Pre Budget Report” and often saw big tax and other spending announcements.

Osborne is doing it differently and is using this afternoon’s statement to provide an update on the state of the economy.

Unlike the budget when the opposition leader responds the main opposition reaction will come from shadow chancellor, Alan Johnson.

Mike Smithson



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Welcome to the “Guardian on Steroids”

Monday, November 29th, 2010

Do the actual leaks live up to their billing?

If you’ve ever wondered what a newspaper on steroids would look like then check out the Guardian this morning. The paper is claiming a big exclusive with its revelations from Wikileaks of US diplomatic messages and a large part of the paper is devoted to the coverage.

As well as the analysis there’s article after article stating why they are publishing the information as well as, on their website, an interactive map of the world so you can check their origin. There are also videos and a link where you can download all the information for yourself.

But what of the information revealed? Is it really earth-shattering and how much will it change our perceptions of US foreign policy? My view is not that much – the big story is that there have been leaks on this scale not the content.

I think that Ben Brogan in the Telegraph is correct when he writes:-

“..The Saudis would like someone to whack Iran? No kidding. Afghanistan is run by crooks? Really? Hillary Clinton would like to know a lot more about the diplomats she is negotiating against? You surprise me. The Russian government may have links to organised crime? Pass the smelling salts, Petunia. The Americans are secretly whacking al-Qaeda operatives in Yemen? What, you thought the Yemenis were doing it? Muammar Qaddafi has a full time, pneumatic Ukrainian ‘nurse’? Nice one. Diplomats are terrified of Pakistan’s nukes? Me too. And so on, ad infinite boredom. Perhaps something better will pop up, but nothing I’ve read since last night’s surprises..”

With last night’s Irish bail-out and this afternoon’s autumn statement by George Osborne it will be the economy that dominates the day’s headline.

Mike Smithson



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Jonathan asks: Is government possible in the Internet Age?

Sunday, November 28th, 2010

The latest Sunday evening slot

After only six months, the Web is giving the Coalition headaches. In the US midterms, the Web helped the GOP punish Obama, despite the president’s reputation as a master of Web campaigning. In Ireland, the relentless scrutiny of the Web denied the government vital time and space to fix its financial problems. Berlosconi, Sarkozy and Merkel have all suffered damage from online rumours. Given the difficulties these administrations face, is Government possible in the Internet age?

Around 2004, half-way through Labour’s term, a phalanx of anti-government blogging websites emerged. Usually attacking from the right, they thrived on any tit-bit of information that damaged the government. Preceding the credit crunch, their arrival coincided with the fall in Labour’s popularity. Whilst there is no evidence that they alone caused Labour’s decline, the mainstream opposition certainly benefited from their attacks. Arguably, their constant stream of opposition dented Labour’s air of authority and contributed to the party’s defeat.

New Labour, invented before the Web went mainstream, certainly found it hard to react. Command and control media operations just didn’t work anymore. It was impossible to rebut every claim on the Web.

Labour didn’t appear to know what to do. Official online efforts either tanked or were counterproductive. Unofficial pro-Labour websites found it difficult to find their voice and compete with a vocal, angry opposition.

Six months into the Coalition, the Web is enjoying a fresh target. The boot is firmly on the other foot. We had a preview during the election campaign when the Tory posters were hijacked (see above). In the face of Web opposition, are the Tories and the Lib Dems faring any better than Labour?

It’s early days, but there are no signs that the Coalition has made any progress. The government has been outmaneuvered by the NUS tuition fees campaign. The demise of Lord Young owed much to the speed that his comments spread across the world. Like Labour, the Coalition is struggling with its online message. We are yet to see a government prosper in the Internet age. One wonders how Major or Thatcher would have got on. TV killed a certain style of politics, has the Web done the same?

One final point. Perhaps one day soon, somewhere, a government will work out how to use the Web to its advantage. When that happens, the fun really starts.

Jonathan is a Labour activist who contributes a regular slot on Sunday evenings



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The week all the leaders took a ratings hit

Sunday, November 28th, 2010

David Cameron

David Cameron “doing well/badly” (YouGov) All (last week) CON voters LAB voters LD voters
Well 47 (-4) 96 13 69
Badly 45 (+6) 3 84 22

Ed Miliband

Ed Miliband “doing well/badly” (YouGov) All (last week) CON voters LAB voters LD voters
Well 28 (-6) 17 56 21
Badly 37 (+5) 52 17 46

Nick Clegg

Nick Clegg “doing well/badly” (YouGov) All (last week) CON voters LAB voters LD voters
Well 32 (-6) 66 6 69
Badly 56 (-5) 23 90 19