Labour take 2 point lead in first post EdM phone poll

There’s a new ICM poll in the Guardian which once again is showing a very different picture of public opinion from that which we see in the News International daily poll by YouGov.

The shares are with changes on last month CON 35 (-2): LAB 37 (nc): LD 18 (nc).

The Lib Dems will be relieved that the pollster that came top in the general election polling accuracy table should have them at levels which are markedly different from the daily polls. Yes support is down since the 23.6% at the general election but the fall-off in support has apparently been halted.

The Tories might find this worrying – they are two points down on the general election and this is the party’s worse showing from the firm since the election.

Labour will be absolutely delighted.

One interesting point picked up by Julian Glover in his report: “only 50% of Tory supporters want their party to rule alone, while 41% want coalition with the Lib Dems, which suggests Cameron will face little dissent from the grassroots at conference next week.”

One big caveat: polls during the conference season tend to be very much influenced by which party was on most recently. We need to wait for a further month before we get a good gauge of opinion.

Mike Smithson

But is it just because EdM is relatively unknown?

We now have the first data from YouGov of responses to the “Who would make the best PM” question since Ed Miliband’s election.

This is one of those questions where the incumbent has a big advantage and even 5% of Labour voters rated Dave over Ed.

The interesting split is amongst Lib Dems where just 4% of backers of Nick Clegg’s party rated Ed Miliband against 13% for Cameron.

Still this is early days and it took David Cameron some time to get close to Tony Blair on this question after his election as Tory leader in December 2005.

Ed Miliband’s challenge is that he is much less known to the wider public than the other two leaders – this will change with time. But Labour might have been hoping for a bit more progress amongst Lib Dems.

Mike Smithson

Daily Mail

Could Labour be heading for a second family crisis?

After Labour’s conference in Manchester was overshadowed by the aftermath of the battle of the brothers the media are now turning their attention to another potential family drama at the top of the party – which of husband & wife, Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper, will end up as shadow chancellor?

For it’s not so long ago that Yvette was being strongly tipped as a leadership contender and she’s reported to have stepped aside to let her husband, Ed, take on the fight. Now the two are the leading contenders and betting favourites for the key shadow chancellor’s role.

Here, though, the choice is for the party leader, Ed Miliband, provided the two both win places in the elections for Labour’s shadow cabinet.

According to the Mail a ” source close to Ed Miliband last night said the new leader was leaning heavily towards appointing Miss Cooper…” Certainly that seems to make a lot of sense and if the EdM’s speech is anything to go by there is a policy difference between him and the shadow schools secretary.

Placing Ed Balls is going to be tricky for the last thing EdM wants is a rival power force to his leadership at the top of the party. He knows only too well what Ed Balls can be like.

After having had their appetites whetted by the Miliband vs Miliband saga parts of the media would love to develop a second family drama – this morning’s Mail coverage is a case in point. It’s report suggests that Yvette might once again step aside.

My money’s on Ed Balls not getting it.

Mike Smithson

Was the Labour lead a one-day wonder?

The latest daily poll is out and shows the Tories edging up and Labour not getting any boost from Ed Miliband’s speech.

It is is almost always the case that parties see a boost in their support in the first polls after their leader’s conference speech. That’s not happened.

This is probably down to the news narrative over the past couple of days which has focussed on David Miliband and, of course, what he said to Harriet Harman during yesterday’s speech.

We should be getting an ICM poll this weekend

Mike Smithson