Will he really stay on if Labour loses?

The big story in the Sunday Times has serious implications for several betting markets if its turns out to be correct.

The report opens: “Gordon Brown is making secret plans to stay on as Labour leader after the general election even if his party is defeated. The prime minister has told close colleagues that he will refuse to quit unless the Conservatives win a significant majority.

“Gordon has said he believes his enemies in the party are too divided among themselves to force him out,” said a senior Labour source. “He thinks that if the May election is indecisive and if there is any prospect of a second election, Labour should not be plunged immediately into a messy leadership contest.”

The goes completely against the received wisdom that after Labour’s likely fall from power then Brown would slip quietly out of the scene and the summer would be dominated with a contest to find his successor.

Many of the thousands of bets that have been placed on the Labour leadership have been made because punters believe that this will all come to a head in the period after the election.

Not so – if this latest report is to be believed.

If Brown wants to do this then the chances are that he’ll be able to see off any challenges – just in the way he has seen off plot after plot over the past year.

One market on this is the Brown exit date market on Betfair. I win £500 for a £67 outlay if he is still Labour leader on January first next year.

Mike Smithson

Mail on Sunday

Is Number 10 trying to contain the Rawnsley damage?

Late last night the above front page figured prominently in the SkyNews review of the papers which is available online. A couple of hours later. as reported on the last thread, PBers linking to Sky found that the Mail on Sunday’s story had been taken down – see here.

Fortunately I had done a screen grab of the SkyNews paper review at 10.34 pm before that happened and that is what I reproduce above.

So what’s happened? Has there been a big operation to limit the damage from the story which reports that a new book by Andrew Rawnsley is going to make sensational claims that “Gordon Brown has physically attacked his staff in a series of outbursts in Downing Street – and once in America ….”?

Whatever the veracity of the allegations they are the last thing that the beleaguered PM needs in the run-up to a crucial general election – and who could blame his team from doing everything possible to limit their impact?

Brown Central’s influence does not seem to extend to the PoliticsHome site where, as at 0620 the front page was still featured. I doubt, also, whether it has impeded distribution of the printed version of the paper.

This is from the paper’s report: “Well-placed sources say the Prime Minister has been accused of hitting a senior adviser, pulling a secretary out of her chair and hurling foul-mouthed abuse at aides while distraught over an alleged snub by President Barack Obama.

The claims, which are fiercely denied by Mr Brown’s allies, are linked to a new book about Mr Brown by respected political journalist Andrew Rawnsley.

In researching the book, The End Of The Party, due to be published on March 1, Mr Rawnsley has investigated allegations that Mr Brown flew into a number of wild rages since he succeeded Tony Blair as Prime Minister. The publishers say his accounts are so detailed that readers will think he has ‘bugs in the vases at No10′.”

One of the problems with Brown’s style of politics is that you can make a lot of enemies on the way and often people don’t forget. The massive danger for Labour is that rightly or wrongly Brown’s character could develop into an election issue. The more there is to fuel it the worse it can get.

Mike Smithson

Is 30% (+MoE) the limit in the current climate?

Two events in Spring 2009 gave minor parties a massive boost in the polls. One was the coverage and electoral opportunities afforded by the European elections, the other was the disillusionment with the Conservatives and Labour that resulted from the expenses scandal (the Lib Dems’ poll rating was largely unaffected).

Twitter

Will this ease the jitters at Cameron Towers?

Barely 13 hours after the Telegraph’s YouGov poll (HAT-TIP Sam) showing the Tories lead down to just 7% there’s a new survey just out for tomorrow’s People. The figures are:-
CON 40% (38)
LAB 31% (31)
LD 18%(19)

So for the third YouGov poll in a row the Labour shares stays on 31% while the Tories recoup the two points that were lost in the overnight survey.

There’s not a lot to say more than that – it’s all within the margin of error – but this is about “The Narrative” and that has Cameron’s party back in the 40s.

This is all warming us up for the election campaign itself when there’ll be several polls a day.

Mike Smithson