What I am carrying forward into 2009
At midnight tonight, assuming nothing untoward happens to Gord, I pick up on quite a hefty bet that I placed in the early summer at 5/6 that Brown would still be Prime Minister at the end of the year. And if by any remote chance he doesn’t there are a another couple of bets I placed at 6/1 and 5/1 at a different time that he would be out by the end of 2008. The amounts staked and the odds are such that whatever happens there’s a profit.
For one of the characteristics of political betting is that often your wagers are fairly long-term. What you have to do is judge the percentage chance of the outcome happening and decide whether the odds being offered represent good value. You can, like with the Brown survival bet, be on both sides of the outcome. When you see a good bet act quickly because others are also on the look out and bookies can change their prices very fast.
I move into 2009 with a series of other long-term wagers including:-
There are a range of other bets as well but, surprising for me, I’ve nothing on the general election spread markets at the moment. I don’t see any value either way.
Have a profitable 2009!
A special appeal to PB’s “Lurkers”: Your votes in the election for PB Poster of 2008 are especially welcome. Most of the voting until now has come from regular posters themselves. Please spare a couple of minutes to give us your view as well. Voting ends at midnight.