politicalbetting.com

Does a 16%-20% margin seem like a value bet?

The Irish bookmaker PaddyPower has put up a range of markets linked to David Cameron’s big conference speech tomorrow – the most interesting being the one featured in the panel above – what polling lead will the Tories have in the first post-big speech survey?

After some consultation with me this will be settled on the basis of the party shares in the first YouGov poll where the fieldwork starts after the big event. I assume that we’ll see a survey either in the Telegraph, the Sunday Times or one of the other media outlets.

I’ve long argued that whatever the fundamentals of public opinion there’s always an element in polls which is based on which party has been in the news most. Thus the Lib Dems got quite a boost a fortnight ago; Labour have done well since their conference; and now we have the Tories.

This is because of the special regime that the broadcaster operate under at this time in the political year – extra coverage is given to each party in turn particularly for the leader’s’ main speeches.

This year, of course, the Tories are having to compete with the global financial crisis and I’m sure that it was with an eye on the media coverage that was one of the reasons for David Cameron’s special speech this morning. Certainly the the Tory front bench seem to be going out of their way to look statesmanlike without a smile between them.

In the YouGov poll taken immediately after the Lib Dem conference but before Labour the main split was C44-L24-LD20. Last week’s survey that started straight after Brown had sat down returned figures of C41-L31-LD16.

My guess is that the 16%-20% segment looks best and I’ll be having a small bet.

There are a pile of other Cameron-speech markets here.

Mike Smithson

Could it be a game-changer for Labour?

There was an emergency statement by David Cameron at the Tory conference this morning in which he sought to look statesmanlike and ensure that his party cannot be portrayed by Labour as opponents of tighter regulation.

It will also mean that he gets onto the bulletins during what will be a highly charged day.

The key point was an an announcement that the party would be withdrawing its objection to aspects of a bill before the house at the moment in an effort to get it onto the statute books quickly.

The political challenge is that the crisis presents a platform on which Brown can perform and where, in the public’s eyes, he has credibility. Cameron was careful not to go against the grain of that perception which I think was a key motive for the move.

Whatever the spread markets on the number of seats the parties will get at the next election have not responded in the manner you would expect to the recent polling developments. In fact in the past 24 hours Sporting Index has upped the Tory level by two seats at the expense of Labour.

Mike Smithson

Would an ending of the crisis put McCain back in contention?

So it’s another day and for Barack Obama and John McCain there are just five weeks more left before Americans vote to decide the next occupant of the White House.

The chart, based on the judgement of punters on the Betfair betting exchange says it all. Two weeks ago McCain’s chances of success based on his betting price were put at 45%. This morning they are about 28% – which is quite a drop.

However you look at it, by the polls or the betting prices, time is fast running out for the 72 year old senator from Arizona. Economics and business matters have never been his strong point and it’s his bad luck that a crisis on an unprecedented scale should have happened in this most crucial period.

But what if a deal is done when Congress resumes on Thursday? What if there’s a big bounce back on the markets? What if something else comes to dominate the campaign agenda? Could McCain still be in with a shout? Could his current price of 5/2 start to look like a bargain?

For the consequences of a global collapse are so dire that it’s hard to envisage the dissenting Republican congressmen continuing to hold out against voting for a solution, however unpalatable it might be to them. My guess is that they’ve gone to the brink and will return later in the week to support a re-packaged set of proposals.

And if that happens, and the markets soar once again that might just be the moment for McCain.

It’s going to be a nail-biting week and nail-biting month.

Live White House Betting Prices.

Mike Smithson

What do we make of no conference bounce?

…..meanwhile, away from the news from Washington, the September ComRes poll for the Independent is just out on the firm’s web-site and the figures are featured above.

When it is published in the paper in morning it will show comparisons with the newspaper’s August survey – not the last poll from the firm that was completed just before Labour’s gathering in Manchester. That’s a pity because the only comparisons that really matter are with the previous survey from the same firm.

Fieldwork for the last poll took place immediately after the Lib Dem conference and just before the start of the Labour’s gathering in Manchester. That showed a big boost for the Lib Dems mostly at the expense of the Tories.

Well tonight’s new poll sees most of that Lib Dem increase disappearing with both the Tories and Labour up two points each.

Given the massive and mostly favourable coverage that Labour, and Brown, got last week I think tonight’s numbers will come as a disappointment. Fieldwork started on Friday and continued until Sunday.

All this adds to what I’ve been saying for weeks – the conference season produces distortions and we need to wait until end October before getting a more stable picture.

Mike Smithson