politicalbetting.com

Did his foreign trip make him look too presumptuous?

Barack Obama has returned to the US after his whirlwind foreign tour to find that some polls are now going against him. Was it wise or not and should he have avoided the mass rally in Berlin?

We don’t know the long term impact but after sifting through the reports again I could not help being reminded of Labour’s famous Sheffield rally a week before the 1992 General Election. This came over in the media as though it had been arranged to celebrate Neil Kinnock’s victory over the Tories.

What he said that day and his whole demeanour did not go down with the voters. He gave the impression of taking the coming election for granted – he was being presumptuous. He was also reminding the public what a Kinnock-led government might look like which with the benefit of hindsight that was not wise.

Voters like to feel that what they are doing is important and if you act as though an election is a done deal then they might just bite back.

Ever since his nomination became a certainty Obama has looked as though he might fall into the Kinnock trap. The creation of an Obama “seal of office” was quickly withdrawn but the overseas tour went ahead in a form that could be portrayed as though he assumed he was in the White House already.

What should have been presented as a fact-finding mission to prepare himself came over as though he regarded the little matter of the election on November 4th as a minor inconvenience.

This is on top, of course, of middle America’s long-standing distrust of foreigners.

A full range of White House betting markets is here.

Mike Smithson

Glasgow doesn’t seem to have had too much impact

The latest Populus Poll for the Times is just out and shows that the Labour deficit has nudged up just two points even though the fieldwork took place during a weekend when the big story was the party leadership and the reaction the the by-election.

In a way it does not add much to that we already know – Labour continue to languish in the 20s with the Tories touching the mid-40s. All of this adds up to a possible Tory landslide should the nation vote in these proportions in a general election.

The Populus poll at the start of the month had the margin at just 13% which was the lowest of any of the pollsters.

On what would happen if Labour did ditch Brown Peter Riddell writes: “Ministers plotting to remove Gordon Brown receive a warning that just a half (52 per cent) believe it would improve the party’s fortunes. This is roughly the same as the 53 per cent when the question was last asked in May despite increased speculation about his future. But there has been a three point rise to 44 per cent in the number saying replacing him with “a younger, fresher, more charismatic alternative” would not make Labour more likely to win.”

So there we are – what will probably be the last poll for several weeks.

Correction: The original graphic had some wrong figures. This has now been amended.

Mike Smithson

Could Obama choose a former Bush Secretary of Agriculture?

I’ve been given a tip that Ann Veneman, the former Bush Secretary of Agriculture and now CEO of UNICEF might be a good bet for Barack’s VP choice.

Certainly there’s been a fair degree of comment in the US media over the past few hours. She looks an interesting choice.

I’ve no idea how good the information is but I’ve put £100 on at the 33/1 that Ladbrokes were offering.

Mike Smithson

Is this just part of the media frenzy?

There’s been a lot on the blogsphere this afternoon about a story that the Independent’s veteran political writer, Bruce Anderson, tells in his column today. This could have an impact.

The stories are seeping out from No. 10. The other day, Gordon Brown was convinced that Dominic Grieve, the shadow Home Secretary, had made such a strong attack on 42-day detention as to impugn his commitment to national security. Although Downing Street advisers trawled and Googled, they could not find the quote. Their boss expressed gratitude for their efforts in the way that a sergeant-major would thank a recruit for a speck of dust on his rifle. Mr Brown then stationed himself at a terminal. For the next four hours, he sat there unavailingly, emanating gloom and rage. The non-psychiatric interpretation of his behaviour is termed “the playing politics with national security syndrome”.

Shortly afterwards, John Prescott was in No. 10, showing around some children. “What’s he doing in this building?” exploded Mr Brown. “Get him out of here.” (He surely cannot regard Mr Prescott as a potential leadership challenger – otherwise, things are truly desperate).

Embarrassed aides explained that, you know, Mr Prescott had been Deputy Prime Minister until last year, and what harm could there be in showing kids around? Gordon Brown’s response was to shut himself in the Cabinet Room for the next two hours, talking to no-one.

It’s very hard to assess this veracity of this account but the fact that it has been published and is being discussed is keeping the issue alive.

hat-tip Stephen Pollard

Mike Smithson