politicalbetting.com

Is Iowa down to a battle of money?

With just five days to go before the critical Iowa caucuses the heavyweight campaigns for the Democratic nominations are throwing everything at the state to ensure that their candidate comes out on top in the first test of opinion in the 2008 White House Race.

ABC News has been reporting overnight how Obama is trying to totally dominate the TV screens on Wednesday evening – on the night before the caucuses. One plan was to buy the time for a live broadcast on a range of channels.

The state has become critical for the three front runners – Hillary Clinton, Barrack Obama and John Edwards who came second to John Kerry in Iowa four years ago. If Hillary can win on Thursday then it’s going to take a massive effort for any other contender to stop her. If she finishes in second or even third place then the race becomes less of a foregone conclusion.

It’s here where Obama’s great successes in fundraising might start to pay off. The received wisdom was that it was the element where the formidable Clinton team had total domination. That all changed earlier in the year and in the next few days in Iowa having deep pockets might be everything.

On the Politico site Jeanne Cummings had a good article a few days ago. Hillary, she says “was stung in March, however, when the little-known, first-term senator from Illinois reported raising a headline-grabbing $26 million. He passed her in the second quarter, raising $33 million compared with her $27 million. The Clinton camp came roaring back in the third quarter, raising $28 million to Obama’s $21 million, but her hard-won fundraising victory came too late to change the campaign’s dynamics.“If he hadn’t raised the money that he raised, his candidacy would not have become so serious so quickly,” said Tad Devine, a consultant for 2004 Democratic nominee John F. Kerry.”

In recent days the sentiment has moved back to Hillary in the betting and the latest Betfair price has her at 0.49/1 to get the nomination. Obama is now out to 2.95/1.

Even if Iowa proves to be a disappointment to Obama he still has the resources to mount serious challenges in other states.

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Mike Smithson

Who were those who cashed in on the afternoon of October 6th?

While going through some of the old threads during the key moments of 2007 I came across the following discussion, reproduced below, which got by-passed by the dramatic news of Gordon’s general election U-turn on the afternoon of October 6.

For it suggests that a gambler or a group of gamblers who had inside information about the Prime Minister’s decision sought to turn what they knew into cash by betting on the timing of the general election before the decision was made public.

The thread shows that during the 45 minutes before the news was made known there was heavy betting resulting in a sharp easing of the price that nothing would be happening this year.

This is an edited version of the discussion thread on the site which took place as England were beating Australia in the key Rugby World Cup match in France. The betting being referred to is Betfair’s election date market

• “Hmm – 2007 GE last matched at 1.36-1, having been odds-on earlier today. Could there possibly be some seepage of info from the pollsters or wherever?” – by Peter from Putney October 6th, 2007 at 2:59 pm

• “Wow!!! Now out to 1.86-1, something must have been said or whispered!” – by Peter from Putney October 6th, 2007 at 3:08 pm

• “2007 is 8/5 now on Betfair. Something has spooked the market. Is it just us, nattering away? Surely not. Looks like a poll has been leaked, or someone has caught a rumour.” – by seanT October 6th, 2007 at 3:17 pm

• “1.86-1, i.e. approx 15/8 in old money were the then odds on Betfair of a 2007 GE. These odds have since narrowed a little, but it’s a very active market at present.” by Peter from Putney October 6th, 2007 at 3:17 pm

• “Somebody is laying 2007 pretty hard now” by Jon October 6th, 2007 at 3:18 pm

• “Conservative Home may be responsible for the change in Betfair odds. They don’t provide any evidence or source for the rumours of worse polls for Labour. What they do say is that GB is pre-recording an interview with Andrew Marr for tomorrow and speculating that he will rule out a GE.” by Blue Moon October 6th, 2007 at 3:26 pm

• “God this is all too much. Election at evens. England leading Australia by 2 points with fifteen to play. Might have to take some d1azepam.” by seanT October 6th, 2007 at 3:29 pm

• “There won’t be an election Sean. Watch the rugby.” by tim October 6th, 2007 at 3:30 pm

• “Certainly the odds on 2007 are STILL widening. But I don’t see why Brown calling an interview means they’ve cancelled the vote. He might be about to tell us he is going for it. How can they know?” by seanT October 6th, 2007 at 3:37 pm

• “I presume it’s because he needs to see the queen before announcing an election, so wouldn’t do an interview saying what and see.” by Woody662 October 6th, 2007 at 3:38 pm

• “Wow – England have beaten Australia. Election on lol!!!!!! “ by The Reverend Doctor October 6th, 2007 at 3:39 pm

• “Well done England. Excellent performance” by Jack W October 6th, 2007 at 3:40 pm

• “Gordon’s never been very big on traditions – maybe he’s already texted the Queen… “ by Edmund in Tokyo October 6th, 2007 at 3:42 pm

• “Jan-Jun 2009 coming in quite fast as well.” by alex October 6th, 2007 at 3:43 pm

• “Nick Robinson on News 24 – No early election” by Gary Barford October 6th, 2007 at 3:45 pm

• “BBC has the story, its off.” by James Burdett October 6th, 2007 at 3:46 pm

• “SKY BREAKING NEWS The Election is off “ by The Reverend Doctor October 6th, 2007 at 3:46 pm

• “Scots in the final then Jack? Incidentally if the rumour is true, it’s going to be a very interesting interview. Will Gordon prompt laughs and incredulity by claiming the election was never on in the first place?” by alex October 6th, 2007 at 3:48 pm

• “I’m very very relieved … why give the Tories a chance when there’s no need? It was pointless. “ by The Reverend Doctor October 6th, 2007 at 3:49 pm

• “I suspect that GB had a whiff of bad polls and wanted to get out the story before the polls are published this evening to try to delink the decision from the polls. I don’t think it will work somehow!” by Blue Moon October 6th, 2007 at 3:49 pm

• ” England beat the favourites and the election is off! I think this may be the best day of my entire life. I am off to get utterly pissed” by MBoy October 6th, 2007 at 3:49 pm

• “Nick Robinson could have made a mistake (not totally impossible)… if Nick Robinson is correct then my prediction is March 2008.” by Matthew JCG Partridge October 6th, 2007 at 4:29 pm

One of the risks of political betting is that at times you can be gambling against those who are “in the know”. There’s nothing illegal about it but if price movements on the scale recorded on that afternoon had happened on the stock market ahead of a big announcement then an inquiry would have surely followed.

Mike Smithson

Will McCain and Clinton be the main beneficiaries?

With exactly one week to go before the first test of opinion in the 2008 White House race the big question this afternoon is how will such a global event impact on Iowa and New Hampshire – the first states to decide on the candidates?

As the Politco site observes – “Bloody images of Pakistan in turmoil, which will dominate newspapers and TV news just as Iowa voters are making their final decision and the caucuses are only a week away, will remind voters that this is a dangerous world. And the aftermath — still very unclear in the chaos surrounding Bhutto’s death — will test the agility of the presidential campaigns in dealing with an unexpected and momentous event; a dry run for daily life at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.”

There is an argument for saying that American voters, particularly in a places like Iowa, are very parochial and in the end it will be domestic matters which will determine their votes.

On the face of it such a dramatic event is a reminder of the seriousness of the decision voters will be taking. It’s here where some are saying that McCain and Clinton might have the edge and that Huckabee and Obama might just come off second best. In a dangerous world, the argument will go, you need experience.

Team Obama, however, can argue is that it is the established approach to US foreign policy that has made the world much more unstable and that their man can help America to relate to the world community better.

Who knows at this stage? The next few days could be fascinating.

In the betting the Clinton price has tightened to 0.51/1 while McCain is the 4.4/1 third favourite in the GOP contest.

Mike Smithson