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Was Cameron right to reveal the peerage request?

The ongoing saga that is the Tory party took another turn today with the revelation from David Cameron that Ali Miraj, the former parliamentary candidate who had attacked his leader, had only yesterday asked to be made a peer.

My first reaction on hearing this on Radio 4′s Today programme was to think that Cameron had made a big error. But now I’m not so sure. I thought that Miraj came off worse to Cameron in the bulletin clips and looked like someone who was taking revenge because his ambition had been thwarted.

Alas it will be some time before we find out what the public reaction is. After today’s two surveys we are about to enter a polling famine with perhaps only two to three surveys appearing during the month and then in a few weeks time.

Whatever it has at least kept politics in the headlines as we enter the silly season and when you produce a blog like this that is to be welcomed!

If you want to bet on Cameron’s survival this appears to be the best market.

Mike Smithson

And bleak news for the Lib Dems from Populus and CR

There are still lots of smiling Gordons to illustrate our main article this morning but not quite on the same scale as recent polls have suggested. The surveys are from two pollsters who have hardly figured as successive YouGov and ICM polls have reported big leads for Labour in the past three weeks.

Populus in the Times has with comparisons on its last poll at the start of the month CON 33% (-1): LAB 39% (+2): LD 15% (-3)

Communicate Research in the Independent has compared with its last survey carried out before Gordon moved into Number 10 CON 34% (-3): LAB 37% (+5): LD 16% (-2)

Both pollsters operate in a similar manner. Both use the telephone and very often their fieldwork is carried out by ICM; both use past vote weighting to ensure politically balanced samples and both give a value to voting intention responses based on how likely it is that respondents say they will vote.

Compared with ICM Populus operate a past vote weighting formula that is slightly more favourable to Labour. So if today’s survey had used ICM weightings my back of an envelope calculation suggests that we would be seeing a 4% or 5% Labour lead.

A key factor in the CR poll is that just 47% of Labour supporters said they were “certain to vote” compared with 64% of Tories and 53% of the Lib Dems. As far as I can see the Labour proportion of “certains” is the lowest in any CR poll this year. At the end of April, just before the local elections, the pollster found that 67% of Labour supporters were in the “certain” category.

So while Labour has expanded significantly its overall base of support since Gordon came the newer supporters might be less certain of their intention – suggesting volatility

There will of course be comparisons with the YouGov poll in Friday which had Gord’s party 9% ahead. The internet pollster does not weight by whether people say they are certain to vote and this possibly explains why its lead is so much larger.

The big losers this morning are undoubtedly the Lib Dems who have seen drops in their shares from both firms – further confirmation that a number of Labour supporters are returning home now that Tony Blair is not leading them.

These new numbers should slightly ease the pressure on Cameron and my guess will make a 2007 general election less likely. The range of general election betting markets is here.

Mike Smithson

Where would Cameron stand if the EU referendum issue was closed down?

One of the most brilliant moves by Tony Blair was his amazing U-turn in April 2004 on having a referendum on the EU constitution. For in one short announcement he completely undermined the Tory campaign for the Euro Election seven weeks hence. The demand for a referendum had been Michael Howard’s device of uniting the Tories on the contentious EU issue.

At a stroke Blair had taken away Howard’s protection and this in many ways helped open the UKIP split. The only problem for Blair was the referendum commitment but, lucky beggar that he was, the French turned it down in May 2005 effectively killing the new constitution stone dead.

Now we don’t have an constitution but a proposed new treaty which provides the same unifying policy for Cameron that Howard thought he was enjoying.

The polls are on the Tories side on this one. YouGov reported on Friday a 58%-17% split on supporting the referendum idea. Cameron will, no doubt, use this as his major theme as he seeks to re-establish his authority at the Tory conference in October.

Unlike most other Tory policies which Gordon Brown has stolen – including the border police last week – the new PM has continued to oppose a referendum and dealt with Cameron’s points on this at the last PMQs by saying “I see we are back to the old agenda”.

But what if Brown himself decided to change his mind and to oppose the Treaty – would that torpedo Tories?

Bruce Anderson raises this possibility in today’s Independent “…Were he to say that, after examining the constitutional text in detail, he finds himself unable to recommend it to Parliament, it would be hard to know whose teeth were grinding the loudest: Nicolas Sarkozy’s, Angela Merkel’s, or the Tory party’s. Shooting the European fox would be much easier than banning fox-hunting. It would also please Rupert Murdoch and Paul Dacre, the editor of the Daily Mail.”

If Tony got away with it three years ago what’s to say that Gordon is not going to follow suit?

Mike Smithson

Is this the man to take on Boris and Ken?

While all the focus has been on Cameron’s poll ratings little attention has been paid to Ming Campbell’s position. Last Friday’s YouGov poll had Lib Dem supporters saying by 54% – 24% that he should be replaced by someone younger.

On the list of Ming’s current problems is next May’s London mayoral election and finding a candidate who’ll manage to get noticed amidst all the media focus on Ken and Boris. A disaster for the LDs next May in London is going to put further pressure on his leadership.

Who can they choose who has what it takes to get more than a rare look-in when the media are likely to be obsessed with Johnson-Livingstone confrontation?

Until the Boris as candidate notion emerged Ming’s party could take comfort from the problems David Cameron was having finding someone to be the Tory flag carrier. But now that has all changed and the party needs someone good with electoral appeal to be in place very quickly.

A characteristic of this election is that it is very personal and in the last battle in 2004 about one in four of the voters who had supported the Lib Dems in the London Authority elections switched to Ken for the mayoral. With two high profile candidates in the frame for the main parties you could see even more seepage of the Lib Dem vote.

One possibility that is being talked about within the party is Lembit Opik who is eloquent, great with the media and has what appears to be a main requirement for the role – a colourful reputation! Lembit is also hugely ambitious and with no element of self doubt.

But would Lembit run? One factor is that he has got an eye on the next Lib Dem leadership contest and running for mayor would certainly increase his profile amongst the party membership. He might even look more serious when compared with Boris. Lembit might just be tempted.

Mike Smithson