politicalbetting.com

Could 1 in 25 Labour supporters switch if there is no Blair?

With Tony Blair reported this morning to be ready to announce the date when he will stand down it is worth asking whether this will be all good for the party in the polls.

For a close look at detailed findings from this week’s YouGov poll suggests that the Prime Minister has a small but significant personal vote which will not be there when he is gone.

These are electors who will only vote Labour if he is the leader. It has long been suggested that this group exists but until this survey, I believe, it has not been possible to make a reasonable guess at the numbers of Labour voters involved.

So this seems to suggest that Tony does indeed have a personal vote with about one in 25 Labour voters prepared to switch when he steps down.

This question was, of course, artificial and was forced. There were no options to indicate support for other parties but it is interesting nethertheless.

The great consolation for Gordon Brown is from the responses of Lib Dem voters to the two questions. With Blair named as Labour leader the Lib Dems split LAB 40% – CON 33%. When the Chancellor’s name is substituted for Blair the numbers were LAB 48%: CON 28%. The reason, of course, that these shares do not add up to 100% is because of the “don’t knows”.

It has long been known that when Tony Blair led Labour to the landslide victory in 1997 he attracted a significant number of Tory voters who had never before contemplated voting Labour. At the 2005 election the big move was from Labour to the Lib Dems and clearly some of these will return when Tony moves on.

I find it extraordinary that after all his trials and tribulations Tony still has what appears to be a significant personal vote.

Remember to enter the PBC by-elections competition. This closes this evening at 7pm. Get your predictions recorded here by that time. For latest by-election betting click here.

Mike Smithson

Test your skill in Double Carpet’s By-Election Competition

With this Thursday’s by-elections in outer London and South Wales presenting the parties with their first major tests at the ballot box since May’s local elections, you are invited to make your predictions for Blaenau Gwent and Bromley & Chislehurst, and put your punditry skills to the test against the rest of the politicalbetting.com readers.

To make for smooth running of the competition, please enter your predictions in the order set out below. For each party, you may make your predictions to one decimal place.

What will be the percentage vote shares for the following parties?

Blaenau Gwent (House of Commons)

Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, Plaid Cymru, Independent (Dai Davies)

Blaenau Gwent (Welsh Assembly)

Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, Plaid Cymru, Trish Law (no party description)

Bromley & Chislehurst

Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, UK Independence Party

The Scoring: Your score for each party will be the difference between your prediction and the actual result (regardless of whether you are under or over in your prediction). Thus if you predict the Lib Dems in Bromley to win 37.2% of the vote and they get 26.9%, your score is 10.3. Your scores will be added up for all fourteen predictions, and the entry with the lowest combined score is the overall winner.

The winning entries for the three individual by-elections will also be announced, and in the event of a tie for the overall competition, the player who has the best predictions for any individual by-election will be the winner.

Your entries should be posted by no later than 7pm on Wednesday 28th June, and in the event of any dispute, the competition organiser’s decision is final.

Paul Maggs (“Double Carpet”)

This thread is for entries only. Please use the previous thread for comments on the competition and the by-election.

Is now the time to put more on?

The chart, based on best betting prices, shows how punters are rating in terms of implied probability the Labour leadership chances of the the Education Secretary, Alan Johnson. After tipping him when his leadership price was 18/1 I’ve now gone into the market again.

Johnson’s chances of winning are much better than 15/2 and as we see today with the Charles Clarke story, the pressure on Blair to go early is gathering momentum. This is a good bet because:-

Continuing Tory polls leads. Ultimately Labour will choose the leader most likely to beat Cameron. Sentiment about Brown’s role will count for little as the party faces the prospect of defeat. From where I sit Johnson looks better equipped than Brown. He’s likable, he’s sharp and, yes, he’s English.

It looks like there will be a contest. The big question mark was whether there would be an election at all. But all the talk about a Brown coronation has been put aside following the aggressive move to crank up the Trident replacement issue knowing how it touches raw nerves within the party. This makes it highly likely that there will be a challenge leaving the road open for Johnson to come in.

Johnson might be the best left-wing way to oppose Brown One of PB.C’s most long-standing Labour contributors, Richard, made this astute observation on Sunday “the more subtle of Brown’s disappointed left-wing followers might realise that they’re better off with a Blairite like Johnson (who has nothing to prove) than a Gordon Brown who, because of his Scottishness and his irresponsible previous sucking-up to the likes of Bob Marshall-Andrews (recorded in Rawnsley’s book Servants of the People), feels the need to be more Blairite than Blair.

Johnson’s recent recent appearances have been impressive. His defence of the criminal record check fiasco for teachers on the Today programme last Tuesday took the heat out of what could have been a difficult issue. And his style seemed to go down well with the Question Time audience last week. People respond to politicians who are self-deprecating, generous and lucid.

Take the 7.5/1 that’s currently available.

By-elections competition. Details of this will be posted here at about 6pm.

Mike Smithson

And it’s 44-38 on a straight Cameron-Brown choice

A new YouGov poll in today’s Daily Telegraph has the following with changes on four weeks ago: CON 39 (+1): LAB 32 (nc): LD 17 (+1).

When asked which they would prefer a Cameron-led Tory party or a Brown-led Labour the Tories win 44-38. This compares with a 45-36 lead when asked to choose between a Cameron-led Tory party and a Blair-led Labour.

Although these were not voting intention questions but a forced choice they should bring some comfort to the Brown camp. The problem is that when voting intention question with named party leaders are asked then the polls that have carried out surveys show the Labour deficit increasing

This survey should not be confused with what ICM and Populus have been doing on the same issue. Forced question do not tell you how people will vote.

The Lib Dems will be pleased that there has been a small recovery from the pollster that has been consistently giving them the worst ratings.

The Tories will be pleased about the resilience of their lead which is now quite substantial.

Labour will be pleased that at least there is the prospect of something better with a new leader.

Mike Smithson