politicalbetting.com

It could be all change at the next election

The focus of British political gamblers over the months since the General Election has been on the next Conservative leader. There is a market on the next Labour leader (and the deputy too), along with betting on when Tony Blair will resign as Prime Minister and Labour leader.

There is no market as yet on the Liberal Democrat leadership, where there are two interesting questions: when will Charles Kennedy go, and who will replace him?

Though the next General Election will certainly see a new Conservative leader, and Tony Blair is very likely to have stepped down, it’s an open question whether Kennedy will still be at the head of the Lib Dems in 2009 or 2010. After winning the best third-party result in 70 years, he is hardly disqualified from fighting a third election. However, having been an MP since the age of 23, and with a young family, he may decide not to continue beyond, say, the conclusion of the party’s policy review.

With many political journalists not well-connected (or just not very interested) in Liberal Democrat circles, reading what press coverage there is of a potential leadership contest often gives a misleading impression of the likely candidates. Unlikely to be in serious contention, for instance, are party president Simon Hughes (a popular figure within the party but not seen as focused and organised enough for the leadership), treasury spokesman Vincent Cable, deputy leader Menzies Campbell (at 62 and 64 respectively, not regarded as long-term choices), or home affairs spokesman Mark Oaten (though often promoted by the press as the leader of the party’s right, he is seen across the ideological range as having quite shallow roots in the party).

More likely contenders would be work and pensions spokesman David Laws from the right of the party, trade and industry spokesman Norman Lamb from the centre-right, and education spokesman Edward Davey from the centre-left – if there were to be a leadership election during this parliament. On the other hand, some in the party – even if they are not Kennedy fans – will be taking into their calculations the calibre of the Liberal Democrat MPs newly elected this year. Fans of Nick Clegg or Susan Kramer would probably prefer a leadership vacancy to be deferred until after the next election, rather than see their favourites have to sit it out as first-term MPs.

Even with the date of a leadership change uncertain, this would be an interesting market for betting – both on the date of the change and on who the next leader will be. During the last parliament, Betfair had a market on which combination of Blair, Duncan-Smith and Kennedy would still be leaders at the 2005 General Election. Once a new Tory leader has been elected, this would be a good one to have back.

Philip Grant
Guest editor

Mike Smithson is on holiday until 5th September.

Will Clarke’s switch on the euro come across as common sense or opportunism?

In the Conservative leadership race, the chances of Kenneth Clarke seem to have been rescued from a badly flagging position since Clarke – the only really prominent Conservative to have supported the euro – admitted that he now saw the single currency as “a failure”.

Less than two weeks ago, Clarke’s campaign was being deserted by former supporters such as Tony Baldry, with only John Bercow and Ann Widdecombe left as publically declared allies. Now the momentum has turned round. Tim Yeo may only have been a “leadership contender” to boost his shadow cabinet chances under the eventual winner, but his endorsement of Clarke seems to mark the stage where the former Chancellor has begun to be seen as in with a chance again. The betting markets agree, pulling Clarke’s odds in to 5.6/1. Doubtless Clarke and David Cameron would argue as to who it was that rejected the “dream ticket” idea first, but both are running hard in their own right.

Clarke argues that his great merit is his ability to beat Labour and the Liberal Democrats, and on what polling evidence is available, he is correct that he has more public appeal than other leadership candidates. On the other hand, polls about hypothetical alternative party leaders tend to reflect name recognition quite strongly rather than thought-out opinions on the candidates. Labour sources are reported as saying Clarke is the candidate they fear most, though parties would probably be wise not to try outfoxing their opponents based on comments which are conveniently allowed to leak to the press.

With British entry into the euro having fallen way down the political agenda, and a future Gordon Brown government unlikely to be in a hurry to resurrect it, Clarke’s change of position on it could be seen as a common-sense recognition of the facts of the current situation. But those who distrust Clarke will conjure up another parallel. In the approach to the final round of 1997 leadership election, Clarke made a deal with John Redwood, the most right-wing candidate in the contest, for his support. With so little political common ground between Clarke and Redwood, the odd coupling did not go down well with Tory MPs, and William Hague won the leadership by 22 votes. Whilst some of Clarke’s public appeal comes from the perception that he goes ahead and speaks his mind regardless of the consequences, supporters of other candidates may try to link his change in position with the Redwood pact in a pattern of opportunism.

Conspicuous by his absence from recent coverage has been frontrunner David Davis – and that may be the most advantageous position for him, while Clarke and Cameron are seen as fighting each other. With some fire drawn away from him, a three-horse race could boost Davis’s chances.

As punters in this market return to digest the long weekend’s news, the momentum towards Clarke should have further to run. And even if this is overdone, it does reflect a genuine recovery of his prospects from their low point. But beyond that, the transformation into a three-cornered contest has the effect of making David Davis (currently 0.75/1) better value than has been the case for a while.

Philip Grant
Guest editor

Mike Smithson is on holiday until 5th September.

Win a prize that money cannot buy

To occupy you over the bank holiday, another of politicalbetting.com’s occasional prediction competitions. It looks like the only prize on offer will be the admiring respect of your peers on the site.

The rules

• Post your entry as a comment on this thread.
• Please don’t use this thread for anything other than entries – discussion of the questions can go on the thread below this one.
• Entries close at 11.59pm BST on Saturday 3rd September, as measured by the time shown on your comment.
• Make sure you put a valid address in the “email” box when you post your entry so you can be contacted if you win.
• One entry per person please, even for those who post here under multiple names!
• The scoring scheme is shown along with the questions. No question will give you a negative score.
• After the last result is available (either the Conservative National Convention on 27th September or the Livingston by-election, whichever is later) I will add up the scores and ask Mike Smithson to announce the winner on the site.

The questions

UK

1: What percentage of votes cast at the Conservative National Convention will be for the constitutional amendment giving MPs the final say in electing a leader?
10 points for the correct answer, reducing by 1 point for every whole 1% you are out
2: Which party will win the Livingston by-election?
5 points
3: What will be the percentage turnout in the Livingston by-election?
10 points for the correct answer, reducing by 1 point for every whole 1% you are out
4: What will be Labour’s winning margin in Livingston as a percentage of votes cast? (if Labour lose, this will be a negative number)
10 points for the correct answer, reducing by 1 point for every whole 0.5% you are out

Germany

5: Which parties will hold ministerial office in the new government?
4 points for each correct party; -4 for each incorrect party; CDU–CSU treated as a single party
6: What percentage of national (party list) vote share will the FDP receive?
10 points for the correct answer, reducing by 1 point for every whole 0.25% you are out
7: What percentage of national (party list) vote share will Die Linke–PDS receive?
10 points for the correct answer, reducing by 1 point for every whole 0.25% you are out

New Zealand

8: How many parties (no need to name them) will win seats in parliament?
10 points for the correct answer, reducing by 5 points for each 1 you are out
9: What percentage of national (party list) vote share will the National party receive?
10 points for the correct answer, reducing by 1 point for every whole 0.5% you are out

Japan

10: What percentage of vote share will the Democratic party receive in the block constituencies?
10 points for the correct answer, reducing by 1 point for each whole 0.5% you are out

Good luck!

Philip Grant
Guest editor

Mike Smithson is on holiday until 5th September.

Please use this thread for any discussion of the competition… the comments section on the competition post itself should be for entries only. Many thanks.